Epidemiological characteristics of leukemia in China, 2005-2017: a log-linear regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Leukemia is a threat to human health, and there are relatively few studies on the incidence, mortality and disease burden analysis of leukemia in China. This study aimed to analyze the incidence and mortality rates of leukemia in China from 2005 to 2017 and estimate their age-period-cohort effects, it is an important prerequisite for effective prevention and control of leukemia. METHODS: Leukemia incidence and mortality data from 2005 to 2017 were collected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) response time trend. Age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age, period and cohort. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate of leukemia was 4.54/100,000 from 2005 to 2017, showed an increasing trend with AAPC of 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3%, 2.5%). The age-standardized mortality rate was 2.91/100,000, showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2012 with APC of 2.1% (95%CI: 0.4%, 3.9%) and then a decreasing trend from 2012 to 2017 with APC of -2.5% (95%CI: -5.3%, 0.3%). The age-standardized incidence (mortality) rates of leukemia were not only higher in males than that in females, but also increased more rapidly. The incidence of leukemia in rural areas was lower than in urban areas, but the AAPC was 2.2 times higher than urban areas. Children aged 0-4 years were at higher risk of leukemia. The risk of leukemia incidence and mortality increased with age. The period effect of leukemia mortality risk showed a decreasing trend, while the cohort effect showed an increasing and then decreasing trend with the turning point of 1955-1959. CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized incidence rate of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2017, while the age-standardized mortality rate increased first and then decreased in 2012 as a turning point. Differences existed by gender and region. The risk of leukemia incidence and mortality increased accordingly with age. The risk of mortality due to leukemia gradually decreased from 2005 to 2017. Leukemia remains a public health problem that requires continuous attention.

Patterns of global burden of 13 diseases attributable to lead exposure, 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of the global burden of various diseases resulting from lead exposure is critical for controlling lead pollution and disease prevention. METHODS: Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework and methodology, the global, regional, and national burden of 13 level-three diseases attributable to lead exposure were analyzed by disease type, patient age and sex, and year of occurrence. Population attributable fraction (PAF), deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) obtained from the GBD 2019 database were used as descriptive indicators, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was estimated by a log-linear regression model to reflect the time trend. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs resulting from lead exposure increased by 70.19% and 35.26%, respectively; however, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 20.66% and 29.23%, respectively. Ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and hypertensive heart disease (HHD) showed the highest increases in deaths; IHD, stroke, and diabetes and kidney disease (DKD) had the fastest-growing DALYs. The fastest decline in ASMR and ASDR was seen in stroke, with AAPCs of -1.25 (95% CI [95% confidence interval]: -1.36, -1.14) and -1.66 (95% CI: -1.76, -1.57), respectively. High PAFs occurred mainly in South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Age-specific PAFs of DKD resulting from lead exposure were positively correlated with age, whereas the opposite was true for mental disorders (MD), with the burden of lead-induced MD concentrated in children aged 0-6 years. The AAPCs of ASMR and ASDR showed a strong negative correlation with the socio-demographic index. Our findings showed that the global impact of lead exposure and its burden increased from 1990 to 2019 and varied significantly according to age, sex, region, and resulting disease. Effective public health measures and policies should be adopted to prevent and control lead exposure.

Fatal, non-fatal burden of cancer in the elderly in China, 2005-2016: a nationwide registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: As populations age, cancer burden becomes increasingly conspicuous. This study quantified the cancer burden of the elderly (≥ 60 years) in China, based on the China Cancer Registry Annual Report to provide epidemiological evidence for cancer prevention and control. METHODS: Data on cancer cases and deaths among the elderly aged ≥ 60 years were collected from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report, 2008-2019. Potential years of life lost (PYLL) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were calculated to analyze fatalities and the non-fatal burden. The time trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint model. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2016, the PYLL rate of cancer in the elderly was stable between 45.34‰ and 47.62‰, but the DALY rate for cancer decreased at an average annual rate of 1.18% (95% CI: 0.84-1.52%). The non-fatal cancer burden in the rural elderly was higher than that of the urban elderly. Lung, gastric, liver, esophageal, and colorectal cancers were the main cancers causing the cancer burden in the elderly, and accounted for 74.3% of DALYs. The DALY rate of lung cancer in females in the 60-64 age group increased (annual percentage change [APC] = 1.14%, 95% CI: 0.10-1.82%). Female breast cancer was one of the top five cancers in the 60-64 age group, with DALY rates that also increased (APC = 2.17%, 95% CI: 1.35-3.01%). With increasing age, the burden of liver cancer decreased, while that of colorectal cancer rose. CONCLUSIONS: From 2005 to 2016, the cancer burden in the elderly in China decreased, mainly reflected in the non-fatal burden. Female breast and liver cancer were a more serious burden in the younger elderly, while colorectal cancer burden was mainly observed in the older elderly.

Trends of cancer incidence among Chinese older adults from 2005 to 2016: A log-linear regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

Background: To study the corresponding strategies for controlling cancer in older adults aged 60 and above in China, a comprehensive assessment of disease burden is required. Therefore, we will introduce the cancer epidemiological characteristics of older adults in China over a recent 12 year period. Methods: The age-period-cohort model was constructed using the cancer incidence data from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report published in 2008-2019. The annual change percentage (APC) was estimated by log-linear regression to reflect the time trend. The data from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database was selected for worldwide comparative analysis. Results: The cancer incidence in older adults aged 60 and above in China showed a decreasing trend (APC = -0.73%, P = 0.009). The urban/rural ratio of cancer incidence increased from 0.94 to 1.07 (t = 3.52, P < 0.05), while the sex ratio (male/female) showed a significant decreasing trend only in rural areas (t = -6.77, P < 0.05), and the ratio decreased from 2.02 to 1.72. The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the cancer incidence increased with age in both males and females, urban and rural areas. The RR of period effect increased from 2005 to 2010, then decreased from 2010 to 2015, and the downward trend was more obvious. The RR of the later-born cohort was lower than that of the earlier-born cohort in rural areas. Lung, gastric, colorectal, esophageal, liver, and breast cancers were common cancers in Chinese older adults. Lung cancer incidence ranked first in males, and it decreased with time in the 75-79 and 80-84 age groups (APC75 - 79 = -1.10%, APC80 - 84 = -0.88%, all P < 0.05). Breast cancer incidence ranked first among female in the 60-64 age group and showed an increasing trend (APC60 - 64 = 1.52%, P < 0.05). Conclusions: The cancer incidence in Chinese older adults aged 60 and above showed a decreasing trend, but it was still at a relatively high level. The key targets of prevention and treatment should be males, urban areas, younger people, older adults aged 60-69, lung, gastrointestinal, and breast cancers in the future.

Burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to dietary lead exposure in adolescents and adults in China.

Lead is a naturally occurring metal with a range of industrial applications; however, it can cause adverse health effects upon human exposure. Even if blood lead levels (BLLs) in the human body are in the acceptable range, it is independently associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is the leading cause of death in China. However, the role of lead exposure in CVD outcomes has not been quantified well. A top-down approach was adopted in this study to calculate the population attribution fraction (PAF) by combining pooled BLLs in the Chinese population reported between 2001 and 2022 with the relative risk (RR) of lead-induced CVD. Subsequently, the disease burden (DB) of lead-induced CVD was estimated and expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the attribution analysis about various sources of lead exposure was performed. Among Chinese adolescents and adults, BLLs of 5.50 ±â€¯2.45 µg/dL resulted in an estimated total DB (×106 DALYs) of 2.21 (2.07-2.32) for CVD, including 1.18 (1.12-1.25), 0.71 (0.69-0.74), 0.23 (0.15-0.26), and 0.02 (0.02-0.02) for stroke, and ischemic, hypertensive, and rheumatic heart diseases, respectively. Dietary lead intake was a major contributor to the DB (68.1%), and lead ingested through food was responsible for 15.1 × 105 DALYs of the CVD burden. Guangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan regions in China reported higher BLLs in adolescents and adults, and the DB of lead-induced CVD was higher in Hunan, Henan, and Sichuan. Lead is a risk factor for CVD that can cause significant DB. Further practical and cost-effective efforts to reduce lead exposure are urgently needed.